Home > Age of Conan, Drop Rates, Statistics > Shards of the Exiled God

Shards of the Exiled God

The Shard of the Exiled God is a purple tradeskill resource that is used to craft bags (Soldier’s Haversack, Commander’s Haversack) and epic weapons (Quill/Feather of Ibis in T2, and the various T3 crafted weapons). It drops from raid mobs in BRC Wing 1, between Yaremka and Sabazios.

  • There are 28 mobs that can drop shards. Non-raid mobs (i.e. the ones without skulls around their name), minions etc. don’t drop shards. Snakes from Sabazios’ room, and the Vengeance of Set from the bowl upstairs, AFAIK don’t drop shards (I’ve never seen it happen at any rate).
  • In addition to shards, these mobs can also drop armor pieces. It’s even possible for the same loot box to contain a shard and a piece of armor.

The statistics so far:

  • 451 shards dropped in 418 runs (in each run, all 28 mobs are killed).
  • That’s 1.079 shards per run.
  • For each mob, the probability that it will drop a shard is thus 1.079 / 28 = 3.85%. Let’s call this probability p.

If we assume, as is reasonable, that the loot table of each mob is independent of the other mobs, we see that the probability that k shards will drop in a run is binom(28, k) pk (1 – p)28 – k. We can compare these theoretical probabilities with the actually observed ones and see that they match very nicely, so our underlying model seems to be sound:

k (number of
shards)

Number of runs (out of 418) in which exactly k shards dropped

Observed probability of k shards

Theoretical probability of k shards
0 136 32.5 % 34.0 %
1 161 38.5 % 37.4 %
2 80 19.1 % 19.9 %
3 34 8.1 % 6.8 %
4 7 1.7 % 1.7 %
0 0 0.0 % 0.3 %

Some observations:

  • About a third of all runs are dry, i.e. without shards. The probability of three dry runs in a row is about 3.4% — if you farm long enough, it will happen. Keep that in mind when it happens, it feels horrible but doesn’t mean that anything is wrong with the loot tables or the random number generator πŸ™‚
  • A greedy PUG raid leader that keeps the first shard to himself, ends up keeping 62% of all shards that drop. If he claims the first and third shard for himself, he ends up keeping 72% of all shards. If he claims the second shard for himself (a few decent ones do that), he ends up keeping 27% of all shards.

Some people say that Black Ring Scions have a higher probability of dropping a shard than other mobs do. (Indeed in the early days after the shards were introduced (in update 1.05), there was an impression that only the scions drop them.) I’ve never tried counting the drops from Scions separately from those of other mobs, so I don’t have any numbers to either support or disprove this claim. People who farm shards in ultra-small groups (like just 2 people) often kill just scions in the first room before resetting the instance.

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  1. February 17, 2012 at 20:52

    Nice post. I’m quite impressed that you’re simultaneously a hard core AoC player, math wiz and a girl. πŸ™‚ Cheers.

  2. February 18, 2012 at 01:17

    Actually, I’m a guy :p But thanks for the compliments anyway πŸ™‚

  3. Misiuggah
    May 31, 2012 at 09:31

    We dropped a shard from Vengeance of Set from the bowl right before Sabazios once. People started moaning “WTF someome broke the bowl?!??” as usual (most people hate extra trash), but when epic chest dropped everyone had their jaws on the floor πŸ˜€

    Now, if anyone has the bowls quest and spawns VoS without warning – we sit quietly πŸ™‚

  4. May 31, 2012 at 12:19

    Nice, it’s good to know that those annoying snakes from bowls are good for something after all πŸ˜›

  5. Question
    August 17, 2016 at 16:48

    Where do you get the recipe for Commander’s Haversack… If you’re still around πŸ™‚

    • August 17, 2016 at 17:01

      You can buy it from one of the NPC vendors in your guild city, if your guild is at renown 20 (at least that’s what the 1.06 update notes say, possibly they may have changed the renown level requirements since then.)

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